The aim is not just to make innovation leadership aware of these shifts, but also to keep on the lookout for more. We recognize that this is never a conclusive selection and is always a work in progress, so we have left some blank spaces for future additions. Clay Shirky talked about his notion of cognitive surplus and how to engage with volunteer creative capacity. We also invite young disruptors and ask them to share how their thinking, attitude, and solutions differs from the status quo.Īmazon CTO Werner Vogels discussed the effects of the shift from Push to Pull on business models. We continuously invite established experts for our THNK forum sessions and ask them about the major changes they see in their field. We have captured in a visual what we believe to be the most exciting and powerful paradigm shifts for innovation leadership. For example, if innovation leadership can shift its perspective from the idea that the elderly are a problem toward a notion that makes them a solution, then it can conceive of all kinds of interesting opportunities for commerce and employment. Third, innovation leadership can explore opportunities and business models emerging from these new paradigms. Second, it needs to become aware of new paradigms, which are new perspectives on these facts, and how these paradigms are shifting. First, innovation leadership needs to be knowledgeable about megatrends anchored in facts. Seeing the world through a different lens has great advantages, but we need to check whether our novel approach is an innovative way of looking at the problem, or whether we are just victims of seeing what we want to see – that is, the observational selection bias. Once you are interested in a buying a specific car, say a red VW Beetle, you end up seeing them everywhere. While a new paradigm helps us to look at the situation from a different perspective, innovation leadership needs to be vigilant about a common fallacy called the “observational selection bias”. What has changed is our perspective on the problem, and a paradigm is a way of seeing the world- a specific set of glasses that frames what we are seeing. The underlying trend hasn’t changed, and it is unlikely to. One way of looking at it would be to think of seniors as a problem a different perspective would think of them as the solution. The new rallying cry is not to produce less, but to produce differently.Ĭonsider the megatrend about the aging of Europe’s population. Another paradigm shift is currently underway: the idea that waste is wealth – the cradle-to-cradle paradigm. This new paradigm became more powerful and led to cleaner production and recycling. Once we became aware of resource constraints and of pollution, we gradually acquired a new perspective: waste is bad. The ruling paradigm up until the 1970s was that waste is a natural by-product of efficient manufacturing in a world in which resources are plentiful. Trends can be measured.Ī paradigm, by contrast, is a way of looking at the world. Trends are based on facts and are supported by data. Megatrends are massive changes in our world that affect all of us, such as the growing scarcity of resources, the ageing population in Europe, or China’s increasing power on the world stage. Trend-watchers and trend-spotters discover weak signals and ripples that may grow to become established trends. Trends are tendencies that shift our reality.
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